Elias Sports Bureau 'Insider's Edge': July 1
Some things you may not know about predicting the future MLS style
But the same kind of information about Major League Soccer would be almost useless for trying to determine who will be in the front of the pack at season's end. At least that's how it's been for the past seven seasons. That's worth keeping in mind as we approach the midpoint of the 2009 MLS season.
Here's a quiz to help start things off: Which team held sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference at the midpoint of four of the past seven seasons? One good guess would be the Revolution, who posted the best record in the conference during that time (87-70-55). Or maybe you're thinking D.C. United, who won MLS Cup 2004 and led the conference in points in two of the past three seasons. Or the Crew, who sandwiched a few down years inside a Supporters Shield in 2004 and MLS Cup title in 2008. Strike 1, strike 2, yer out! It's the MetroStars/Red Bulls who led the Eastern Conference at the halfway point four times from 2002 through 2008 -- without finishing any of those seasons higher than third in the conference.
Or take the case of the 2008 Galaxy. Do you recall that Los Angeles shared the Western Conference lead with Chivas USA halfway through the 2008 season? If not, it's probably because the Galaxy produced only 12 points over their last 15 games (2-7-6) to finish the season tied for last in the conference.
Here's the headline: Over the past seven seasons, no team that held sole possession of its conference lead at the midway point of a season posted the conference's best record in the second half as well. Only two of those 10 teams -- D.C. United and FC Dallas, both in 2006 -- even held on to finish the season in first place. That's a total reversal of the trend from 1996 through 2001. Over the first six MLS seasons, 11 of the 14 teams that led their conference at the midpoint finished the season in first place.
As to why this should be, several causes are apparent, but we'll hang some numbers on them to help illustrate. Let's start with attrition. The MLS regular season spanned an average of 199 days over the past seven seasons (2002-2008), up from 183 days over the league's first six seasons. By comparison, here are the comparable averages for the other major U.S. pro leagues over the same time span: NHL -- 188 days, MLB -- 186 days, NBA -- 170 days, NFL -- 116 days, WNBA -- 100 days. The WNBA contrast is instructive in that 13 of its 22 teams that held a conference lead halfway through a season have finished that season in first place. Shorter schedule, less flux.
After all, how many players can maintain top form over the course of even a few months, let alone the 28 weeks from opening day to the end of the MLS season? To help answer that question, we note that no player since Mamadou Diallo in 2000 led Major League Soccer in goal-scoring halfway through a season and was also the leader during the second half of that season.
Note also that over the past few years, the number of impact players that have joined their MLS teams with the season already in progress has grown -- players like Brian McBride, Josh Wolff, and Darren Huckerby last season, and Juan Pablo Angel and Cuauhtemoc Blanco in 2007. Although injuries negated his potential impact in 2007, David Beckham is the highest-profile example. Players who didn't appear in any of their team's first 10 games of a season accounted for 11 percent of all games started in MLS last season. That percentage, which never reached double-digits from 1998 through 2004, has ranged between 10 and 12 percent over the past four seasons -- an indication that, more than ever before, teams are now making influential roster moves as the season progresses.
But more than any other, the most obvious reason for the flux in the standings during the second half of an MLS season is parity. From 2001 to 2008, the leader and runner-up in 12 of the 17 conference/division races were separated by three or fewer points at the midpoint of the season. From 1996 to 2000, the comparable figures were 2 of 11. It's a simple dynamic: evenly-matched teams produce tighter races, leading to greater fluctuation in the standings.
That pattern appears to be holding again this season. As we approach the Fourth of July weekend, the midpoint of the 2009 season, no fewer than seven teams either lead their conference or are within three points of the leader: D.C. United, Columbus, Toronto FC, and Chicago in the East, Houston, Chivas USA, and Seattle in the West.
Uneasy lies the head that wears the midseason crown? You betcha.
Peter Hirdt is Vice President of the Elias Sports Bureau, Official Statistician of Major League Soccer.
